Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has been the talk of the tech world in recent years, with promises of revolutionizing industries and transforming society. However, a predictions report from analyst firm CCS Insight suggests that 2024 will be a pivotal year for generative AI. Rising costs, regulatory challenges, and the need for a reality check are among the factors that will shape the future of this technology. In this blog post, we explore the key points highlighted by CCS Insight and examine the implications for generative AI.
The Hype and the Reality Check
Generative AI has captured the attention of major players like Google, Amazon, Qualcomm, and Meta. The hype surrounding the technology has been immense, but according to Ben Wood, chief analyst at CCS Insight, it has become overhyped. Wood acknowledges the potential impact of AI on the economy and society but emphasizes the obstacles that need to be overcome to bring generative AI to the market. The reality of the cost, risk, and complexity involved in running generative AI models is replacing the initial hype.
The Rising Costs
Generative AI models, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google Bard, rely on significant amounts of computing power to process complex mathematical models. High-powered chips, particularly advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) designed by companies like Nvidia, are necessary to run these models effectively. However, the cost of deploying and sustaining generative AI is immense. While large companies can afford these expenses, smaller organizations and developers may find it too expensive to continue investing in generative AI.
Regulatory Obstacles in the EU
The European Union (EU) has often been at the forefront of technology regulation. CCS Insight predicts that AI regulation in the EU will face obstacles due to the rapid advances in the technology. While the EU is expected to be the first to introduce specific regulation for AI, the legislation will likely be revised multiple times to keep up with AI advancements. Industry self-regulation may be the initial step before finalizing legislation in late 2024.
Content Warnings and AI-generated Material
AI-generated content, including news stories, has become increasingly prevalent. To combat misinformation and factual errors, CCS Insight suggests that search engines will soon add content warnings or labels to AI-generated material. Similar to how social media platforms introduced information labels related to COVID-19, these labels aim to provide transparency and help users identify AI-generated content.
AI-based Identity Fraud and Arrests
CCS Insight predicts that arrests for AI-based identity fraud will commence in 2024. With advancements in image generation and voice synthesis technology, individuals can use AI to impersonate others. This has wide-ranging implications, including damage to personal and professional relationships, as well as fraud in banking, insurance, and benefits.
Conclusion
As generative AI faces a reality check in 2024, the technology must confront challenges such as rising costs and regulatory hurdles. While the hype surrounding generative AI may fade, its potential impact on the economy and society remains significant. The evolution of generative AI will require collaboration between industry, regulators, and developers to ensure responsible and ethical use. By addressing these challenges, generative AI can continue to shape the future of technology in a meaningful way.
